If there’s one quarterback from this draft class I could see make a Drake Maye-level jump next year – it’s Tyler Shough.
Shough has always been a guy who had the physical tools and ability, but he simply couldn’t stay healthy, which would explain why he was a 26-year-old rookie last season.
Success Rate by Route
Route Percentage
To put into perspective how long Shough has been waiting for this moment, he was Justin Herbert‘s backup at Oregon years before transferring to Louisville.
When the New Orleans Saints drafted him ahead of Shedeur Sanders, there were a lot of people laughing and dropping memes online. But to many people’s surprise, Shough wasn’t a complete disaster. In fact, he was good as a rookie. He finished with a winning record as a starter and a positive touchdown-to-interception ratio.
He really got going over the final five weeks, going 4-1 as a starter and totaling 8 touchdowns. After finishing last season strong, the expectations are high for Shough and the Saints. They have improved their offensive line. They signed Travis Etienne in free agency and they drafted Jordyn Tyson in the first round of the NFL draft. All signs point to this offense, taking a big leap with Shough under center.
The benefit of being in Kellen Moore’s offense is that Shough is a good passer when he’s asked to play on time but he’s even better when he needs to create out of structure.
The truth about quarterbacks in the NFL is that very few have a good ecosystem that allows them to make easy throws without ever having to face pressure. Shough faced pressure on 16.2% of his throws while maintaining a 62.5% success rate; both are second-highest in the class.
Success Rate Heat Map
Shough was an underrated rusher last season, with 20+ rushing yards in 40% of his starts. His mobility allowed him to extend plays often, but rather than drop his eyes and turn into a running back like so many rookies tend to do, Shough would keep his eyes downfield and often get the ball to his third or fourth read after a scramble drill.
He was also really good on throws outside of the pocket – his 71.2% success rate on those throws was second-best behind Cam Ward by a little more than 1%. For perspective on that rate, Jaxson Dart (55.6%), Shedeur Sanders (47.5%), and JJ McCarthy (64.9%) were all a bit further behind.
I mentioned that Shough was viewed as this bumbling meme of a quarterback when he entered the league. There were clips of him missing throws at the combine and doing some generally wacky stuff on the field in college. Naturally, I expected a little more of the same at the NFL level. Boy, was I surprised.
Shough faced clutch situations at the second-highest rate of any rookie quarterback at 13%, and he thrived in those scenarios with a 60% success rate.
Each of those statistical categories matters a lot to me when I am evaluating a quarterback. I will often ask myself, “Can this guy keep the play alive and make the necessary players under pressure?” Shough absolutely can.
It’s not just that he was good at a few things that I value. He was the best in the class in success rate against man coverage. Best in the class against zone coverage. Best in the class on short throws under 10 yards. Best in the class in the intermediate throws between 10-19 yards. Second best in the class on deep throws 20 yards or more.
If that wasn’t enough to sell you on Shough, here’s some more propaganda.
He was the best or near the top of the class in success rate when throwing some of the toughest “big-boy” routes in football:
1st in Outs (78.3%)
1st in Digs (79%)
1st in Corners (76.9%)
2nd in Posts (62.5%)
2nd in Comebacks (50%)
2nd in Nines / Go Routes (40%)
Meanwhile, Shough had no issue with the easier routes like slants and curls. He was on time, accurate and he ran the offense like he needed to.
Tyler Shough is a legit NFL starting quarterback and he should only improve with another offseason in Kellen Moore’s offense and the added help around him.
I’m most excited for Jordyn Tyson to be added to this offense with Shough. To steal some of what Matt Harmon had to say about Tyson:
“Tyson had an 85.6% success rate vs. zone coverage, which is not only the best result in this class, but it’s the fifth-best mark since 2021 for a power-five receiver” and also “an excellent showing in the intermediate area.”
Some of Tyson’s best work was done on post routes. Despite Shough having a high success rate on posts, he threw them at the lowest rate of any quarterback in this class. He also had the lowest percentage of throws to the deep middle of the field beyond 20 yards, despite having a solid success rate of 42.9%. The intermediate middle of the field was already a huge strength for Shough but I think we could see this offense, and Shough in particular, become really dangerous by being able to attack the middle more often and a bit further downfield.
Another thing to consider with Shough and this Saints offense is that they will have nine indoor games in 2026 with the second-easiest strength of schedule. After charting him, reviewing the tape, and all the additions made to the offense, I am all in on Tyler Shough for 2026.
