Below is the Reception Perception tracker and progress report for my in-season wide receiver charting work, available exclusively to SICKO/VIP and PRIME subscribers
Reception Perception has been around since 2014. This is only the second year I have attempted or published mass in-season charting data or evaluations at any point. I’m hoping to provide a ton of insight on how guys are performing earlier than ever. If there are players you want to see featured, just hop in The RP Discord and hit up the suggestions channel. Please note I will not be able to get to every player or even close but I’m hoping to hit on key guys. So DO NOT just suggest names, tell me why they deserve to be here.
All write-ups will be available to subscribers under the “articles” tab.
Most recent update: 12/07/2023
| Date updated | Wide Receiver | Team | Relative Performance | ROS Ranking | Dynasty Ranking | Notes | Most Recent Article | Games Sampled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 912 | Skyy Moore | KC | Oof | 70 | 0 | Not a good start in Week 1 but willing to give him a pass considering the Travis Kelce absence. Right now, he just needs to get better with his timing working through zone coverage. Still shows ability to work back to the QB in man coverage. | Week 1 Charting Review | Week 1 |
| 913 | Kendrick Bourne | NE | Right On | 0 | 0 | Really had a nice Week 1 game. Checked in with a 73% success rate vs. man and was good on slant and dig routes. That ability to beat man shows up in the stats on third-down. However, doesn't have the same consistency or disciple against zone coverage (63.2% success rate). | Week 1 Charting Review | Week 1 |
| 913 | Allen Robinson | PIT | Right On | 72 | 0 | Looks like he's found a nice home as the Steelers big slot receiver. Lined up inside on 82.5% of his snaps and was off the line for 68.4%. That fits him best at this point, as does his route portfolio. Over 57% of his routes were slants, curls or flats. He still beats man coverage with technique and quick separation (71.4% success rate). | Week 1 Charting Review | Week 1 |
| 919 | A.J. Brown | PHI | Wow | 4 | 0 | Big stats haven't come through the first two weeks but he's been fantastic. Sits at 80% success rate vs. man coverage and press coverage. Given his route distribution with fewer slants and more out routes, I'm guessing the Eagles expected more man coverage against the Patriots and Vikings. Once they see a defense they can peg down, Brown will dominate on slants like he always does. | Weeks 1-2 Charting Review | Weeks 1-2 |
| 920 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | Good | 7 | 0 | His 75% success rate vs. man coverage and 81% success rate vs. zone are right in line with his career expectations. His slow start to the season has nothing to do with him (yes, he should have secured that touchdown in Week 2) and everything to do the state of his QB. It's extra frustrating that the Bengals are having him route a ton of out and flat routes - even more than usual - when Burrow can't drive the ball right now. | Weeks 1-2 Charting Review | Weeks 1-2 |
| 920 | Nico Collins | HOU | Wow | 14 | 0 | Has been a RP favorite for years and we're seeing it all come together now. He looks like a No. 1 alpha X-receiver in a Shanahan-style offense (88.2% of snaps on the line). Collins' 76.7% success rate vs. man in fantastic and he's thriving on dig and slant routes, which are critical in this offense. C.J. Stroud is throwing with great anticipation on those passes and Collins is playing like a bully after the catch. He just looks awesome right now. | Weeks 1-2 Charting Review | Weeks 1-2 |
| 921 | Jahan Dotson | WAS | Good | 41 | 0 | Dotson has been cutting dudes up as a route-runner through two weeks. His 76.9% success rate vs. man and 80% success rate vs. press show how explosive and technically detailed he looks in Year 2. Eric Bienemy has him running out of the slot more this year (51.6%), which is smart to exploit matchup. Over 51% of Dotson's routes have been and out, curl or dig. He's running a ton in the intermediate area of the field. As the offense gets more synced up, his big days will come. | Weeks 1-2 Charting Review | Weeks 1-2 |
| 926 | Keenan Allen | LAC | Good | 8 | 0 | Keenan Allen has been insanely productive through the first three weeks. His success rate vs. man and press coverage are back closer to his 2021 results (73.5%, 80%). It looks like his steeper decline in 2022 was due to playing through a hamstring issue. We should also give credit to Kellen Moore as he's only asking Allen to run the routes he's still separates on at a high level. Over 51% of his routes in Weeks 2 and 3 were either a slant, screen, curl or flat. And Allen's average success rate on those routes alone is 92.2%. Hopefully Mike Williams' injury doesn't cause defense's to clamp down and put a roof over this offense. | 2022 Player Profile | Weeks 2-3 |
| 1004 | Calvin Ridley | JAC | Good | 23 | 0 | Ridley set expectations with a rocket ship take-off in Week 1. He's tampered down in the stat sheet since and has made some mistakes (8.7% drop rate) but RP shows he's playing just fine. His 76.5% success rate vs. man coverage is right in line with his career average of 76.6%. A.J. Terrell gave him some issues in press in Week 4 and he's only been a little above average on nine route (57.1%)...but those are my only negative notes. He's running out as a vertical X-receiver so he'll be a somewhat volatile producer but he's drawing a ton of defensive attention (22.2% doubled route rate) but he's playing his role with high effectiveness. | COMING SOON | Weeks 1, 3 and 4 |
| 1017 | Romeo Doubs | GB | Right On | 54 | 0 | I think Romeo Doubs' success rates from the mid-season Rookie Report from last season (58% vs man, 78.4% vs. zone) is much more indicative of his skill-set than the disaster numbers he finished with after playing while coming back from a high-ankle sprain. Doubs checks in at 63.6% success rate vs. man and 71.4% vs. zone. Nothing special but not a mess. I think he's a solid possesion WR3. | 2022 Player Profile | Week 4 |
| 1018 | George Pickens | PIT | Right On | 36 | 0 | I'm saying "right on" because what I'm seeing out of Pickens is what I expect to see out of him. I'm sure others that have unrealistic expectations are going to be upset at this analysis. It seems impossible to have a rational converation about this player but here we go. Pickens has been lining up as a pure X-receiver (92% of snaps on the line, just 84.3% outside) and 50.7% of his routes were posts, nines or corners. He's still primarily a deep threat but he has received an uptick on digs (11.9%) and slants (16.4%). That's extremely helpful. He's still an average separator (66.7% success rate vs. zone, 60% vs. man), at best. He was elite on contested catches but has been a mess there in every other game. It's just a volatile way to live as a wide receiver. Does it hurt your feelings if I say he's Mike Williams? That's who he compares best to, right now, and there's NOTHING wrong with that. | 2022 Player Profile | Weeks 4 and 5 |
| 1018 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | Right On | 10 | 0 | Week 6 was a frustrating one because of uncharacteristic ball issues. He had two drops and lost two of his three contested catch attempts. He's still showing all the fantastic route running we know and love. His 70% success rate vs. man and 81.3% success rate vs. zone are in line, if just a tick down from his 2022 season. Not a big deal. Smith had a 100% success rate on slants, 81.8% on curls and 75% on digs. That made up over half of his routes. The Jets just did a good job gloving him up on posts and nines. Bigger days are coming for Smith when the Eagles figure their offense out. | 2022 Player Profile | Week 6 |
| 1020 | Elijah Moore | CLE | Wow | 48 | 0 | Elijah Moore is playing really well in isolation. We just need some semblance of quality quarterback play on the Browns offense for it to reflect in his production. Moore has a 76.9% success rate vs. man coverage and 85.1% success rate vs. zone in the games sampled. He got wide open multiple times on the game-winning drive against the 49ers and P.J. Walker just missed him. We'd be having a much different conversation about Moore if those throws were completed. Alas. I will say, Moore is running good routes and getting open but I don't love his role on this offense. He's taken 42.2% of his snaps from the slot and 18% from the backfield in this sample. He's running a ton of underneath routes. I'd love to see him get more flanker reps and be used to slash teams in the intermediate area like the Jets did in his rookies season. Otherwise, we could be looking at a Curtis Samuel type of career path for Moore - great in RP but pigeonholed into a "bit player" role despite his route running cops. | 2022 Player Profile | Weeks 2 and 6 |
| 1026 | Rashod Bateman | BAL | Oof | 55 | 0 | Rashod Bateman was always going to be a slow-starter this season because he's coming back from almost zero offseason practice time while rehabbing a major injury (and then he picked up a hamstring during Week 3). That rust has been apparent, primarily when he's working further downfield. His nine (36.4%), post (40%) and corner (50%) success rates are dreaful. That said, 40% of his routes in this three-game sample have been slants or curls and his success rates there are great (87.5% and 78.6%). His success rate vs. press is also quite strong (81.8%). The detailed route-running and precision are still present in Bateman's game. The juice and timing at the catch point are not. We're at a point where we have to simply cross our fingers he strings some healthy games, weeks, months, seasons together. Not to inspire one last bit of hope, but his success rate vs. man coverage jumped from 55% in Weeks 3 and 5 to 65.6% after the Lions game from Week 7 was incorporated. He was used in motion more often and looked more a part of the offensive plan while consistently running great routes against man. Hopefully he picks up momentum. | 2021 Player Profile | Weeks 3, 5 and 7 |
| 1102 | Chris Olave | NO | Good | 12 | 0 | I cannot stress this enough, while Derek Carr and a poorly designed offense do need to shoulder some of the blame for how Chris Olave's disappointing sophomore season, the receiver has left plays on the field. He's been a part of the problem. His success rate vs. man coverage of 71% in this sample is far from poor, but it's below expectation. However, his success rate vs. zone (81%) and press (82.4%) are both outstanding. He's not playing poorly, necessarily, but some of these missed opportunities and poor routes are on him. To sum it up: I think Olave is playing this year like a top-20 receiver in the NFL while I firmly believe he can and should be inside the top-10. That can change course at any time given the separation he gets across the field. Lastly, it truly drives me crazy how few layups they give him. He's run a slant on just 9% of his sampled routes. Last year it was 7.9%, lowest among players I charted in 2022. No one else ran slants on fewer than 10% of their routes. Only two other players (Flowers, Dotson) are south of 10% so far this season. | 2022 Player Profile | Weeks 4 and 6 |
| 1128 | Demario Douglas | NE | Good | 56 | 0 | didn’t chart Demario Douglas during any of the prospect rounds this past year. I just didn’t get any Liberty film. So I was curious to dive into him as an NFL player and have been largely impressed with what we’ve seen. Douglas has shown some ability to get open against man and press coverage with a 72.7% and 71.4% success rate, respectively. He has a solid package of release moves to get off the line and into routes while maintaining full speed. That’s been some of the most impressive parts of his game. Douglas looks like a keep for the Patriots. He knows how to beat man coverage and get open underneath. We’re still in discovery mode regarding his ceiling, but he can play in the league. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1128 | Rashee Rice | KC | Good | 26 | 0 | One thing I can say for sure after seeing Rice in the NFL: His college profile, as suspected, was 100% injury-tainted. We can put that aside, for now. That is made clear just by his juice in the YAC game. He's been in space on 16.9% of his sampled routes and has broken at least one tackle on 63.6% of those plays. Rice needs to develop further against man and press coverage and run more big boy routes downfield as an outside receiver to be classified as a future No. 1. His 63.9% success rate vs. man and 62.5% success rate vs. press have been climbing throughout the season but are still below average. For now, the Chiefs have hit on this player as a great piece of their passing game. He’s tough, runs well in the open field and beats zone coverage. You can build a quality NFL resume on those traits. Rice looks well on his way. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1128 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | Right On | 35 | 0 | The results on Jaxon Smith-Njigba so far in the NFL have certainly been mixed. Some of his early season box score results were fluky because he was working back from a preseason injury and I’d say the player he’s been since the Seahawks bye is more indicative of his NFL baseline. Even then, I’d say that JSN the player has been “fine.” Just nothing more than that. Smith-Njigba’s 70% success rate vs. man coverage and 80% success rate vs. zone are both quality scores. They meet some really important historical thresholds, even if they aren’t spectacular. JSN looks like he will have a long, productive career as an NFL slot receiver. The best is yet to come for him and he could even hand a high target workload at some point down the line. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1128 | Quentin Johnston | LAC | Yikes | 62 | 0 | The Chargers clearly took Quentin Johnston, thinking he would be Mike Williams’ long-term replacement as the team’s top X-receiver. He broke camp as the team’s fourth receiver and was never given touches in any gadget, “get him in space” player. They wanted him to develop into a true perimeter receiver. When injuries struck the receiver room, Johnston was asked to assume Williams’ role and unfortunately, the results have been nothing short of a disaster. Obviously, this is not a full sample and Johnston has ample time to improve from his Rookie Report results. However, these success rates are nightmarish compared to the full historical database. His 38.9% success rate vs. man coverage would be the second-lowest in Reception Perception history, his 50.9% success rate vs. zone coverage the second-lowest and his 35.3% success rate vs. press the fifth-lowest. It’s early in Johnston’s career, but he could not be off to a worse start. The Chargers knew he wasn’t ready for Year 1 and were only forced into playing him because of injuries. Hopefully, he develops on the job over the rest of this season. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1128 | Jayden Reed | GB | Good | 38 | 0 | The more I’ve charted Jayden Reed, the more I’d like to see him featured in the Packers offense. He was one of my favorite prospects and his game is translating to the NFL field. There have been some growing pains here – some route depth and timing issues – which isn’t too shocking for a rookie but his 77.8% success is still solid. Reed has thrived against man coverage. His 78.6% success rate is astounding and is demonstrative of an explosive and detailed technician. I’m such a fan of his route running, especially when working the deep and intermediate areas. Reed hasn’t faced much press but he’s won all four of the reps I charted across four games. The Packers would benefit by making Reed the primary of this offense, as he’s their lone consistent separator. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1128 | Josh Downs | IND | Wow | 40 | 0 | I struggle to put into words just how impressive Josh Downs has been so far in the NFL. This guy led the charted prospects leading into the 2023 NFL Draft in success rate vs. man coverage and that blistering ability to get open has perfectly translated. Downs’ success rate vs. coverage scores are nuts—his 81.5% success rate vs. man coverage would have led the NFL last year and his 85.5% success rate vs. zone and 80% success rate vs. press are elite-tier marks. Josh Downs has been one of the best separators in the NFL this season. Not one of the best rookie separators. One of the best separators league-wide, full stop. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1128 | Zay Flowers | BAL | Good | 21 | 0 | Flowers has been “in space” on 12.6% of his sampled routes and has only gone down on first contact on 28.6% of those plays. He’s broken multiple tackles on 35.7%. He’s a handful in the open field and breaks tackles with both speed and ferocity. There’s some thought that Flowers won’t beat NFL coverage because of his designed touches and work in the open field. Based on Reception Perception, that isn’t true. Flowers has run out as the Ravens’ primary flanker, taking 62% of his sampled snaps outside and 68.5% off the line. His 73.5% success rate vs. man coverage and 83.9% success rate vs. zone are sterling results. There have been some minor issues against press but I’d put him at “inconsistent,” not truly bad in that area. His ability to run routes and get separation is what has me thinking he has the ability to become a star-level player someday. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1128 | Puka Nacua | LAR | Wow | 11 | 0 | Nacua has been a perfect fit for the Rams as their outside receiver since Day 1. He never played in Cooper Kupp’s role despite the veteran’s absence. He took just 25.4% of his sampled snaps from the slot and split his time 44.3% to 55.7% between off and on-the-line reps, respectively. Nacua probably fits best long-term as a flanker but he’s taken snaps as the X receiver this season. His 73.8% success rate vs. man and press coverage are the biggest indicators he was no fluke. Make no mistake, he is here to stay. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1128 | Jonathan Mingo | CAR | Yikes | 59 | 0 | Predictably, Mingo has struggled to win outside. His 59.4% success rate vs. man coverage is a brutal score and his 73.3% success rate vs. zone isn’t much better. Mingo’s 68.8% success rate vs. press is a solid mark and he’s shown an ability to get off the line quickly and into his routes. But only when he’s working short. Mingo has shown some potential to get open at a near-league-average rate on shallow routes like the slant and flat. Those would be much better if he were working from the slot. Right now, the Panthers have him running a ton of curls, posts and big-boy downfield out-breaking routes. There was nothing on Mingo’s college film that would indicate he was going to win in this role, especially right away. So, he’s not. He doesn’t have that kind of juice of detail in his technical approach to the game needed to beat man coverage. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1128 | Tank Dell | HOU | Good | 0 | 0 | Dell has lined up outside on 76.1% of his sampled snaps and has been on the line for 58.5% and off the line for 41.5%. I was impressed with how he handled some X-receiver work with Nico Collins sidelined in Week 10. For the most part, however, he’s been a vertical flanker who has stressed out defenses down the field. Dell’s 70.2% success rate vs. man coverage is a strong indicator of his separation ability. He has a great plan on his route stems and can explode out of breaks. Dell’s best routes on the corner, out and comeback. Those are the big-boy outside-the-numbers throws. C.J. Stroud has always been money on these patterns and Dell’s Reception Perception prospect profile revealed this as a strength of his game. Dell has immediately brought the route chops here to the pros. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1128 | Jordan Addison | MIN | Right On | 37 | 0 | His 48.7% success rate vs. press is a troubling mark and remains the weakest point of his game. I’ll note that this has been on the uptick lately and could get closer to the league average as he develops.Anything that calls for Addison to work the middle of the field is playing into his specialty. His slant and post-route success rates are excellent. Addison has excellent deception to sell a go before ripping off a big crosser and has excellent rhythm and tempo on over-the-middle routes against off-man and zone. He also works well on slants and flats and has been a reliable target. I still remain skeptical that Addison ever develops into a true No. 1 receiver, given some of his issues with physical coverage. Still, he’s an explosive player who wins with technique. I love his projections as Justin Jefferson’s long-term running mate. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1128 | Michael Wilson | ARI | Right On | 61 | 0 | Wilson showed some flashes in college of an ability to beat man and press coverage outside. He showed those traits early in his NFL days against great defenses in Dallas and San Francisco. And he’s sustained as the season has worn on. Wilson’s 70% success rate vs. man and 70.4% vs. press are nice results. Wilson is an interesting player because he can be a ball-winner downfield on contested passes. Almost a third of his sampled targets have been contested and he’s comfortable leaving his feet to out-muscle defenders. His 85.7% contested catch rate is among the best marks in this Rookie Report. He doesn’t separate on those vertical routes but does his best work on base NFL routes like the slant, curl and dig. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1201 | Dontayvion Wicks | GB | Good | 65 | 0 | Dontayvion Wicks has really impressed in brief glimpses so far in the NFL. He has multiple favorable Reception Perception marks to this point. He's played 70% of his sampled snaps outside and has split his time between X-receiver and flanker. Both his 68% success rate vs. man and 77.6% success rate vs. zone coverage are really nice marks from a Day 3 rookie, better than either of the Packers 2022 rookie receivers, by the way. His route running and technique really shine when working against press with a 71.4% success rate vs. press. He needs to improve downfield and cut out some mistakes but I love the way this guys separates on base NFL routes like the slent, curl, dig and out. Wicks has a bright future. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1201 | Marvin Mims | DEN | Yikes | 68 | 0 | Marvin Mims had a mixed overall profile as a prospect and so far we're seeing more of the bad than the good. Mims has played in several spots for the Broncos but has primarily lined up outside (68% of his sampled snaps) and has been off the line for 59.9%. He’s taken 8.2% of his sampled snaps in the backfield. Sean Payton has used motion well and with intention on this offense. Unfortunately, there hasn’t been much to see regarding Mims’ deployment as a receiver. He ran a go-route on a whopping 42% of his sampled routes. That's crazy high. The problem for Mims is that he has shown zero ability to consistently separate on other routes. He can get open on posts and corners – honestly, his 50% success rate on nine routes isn’t awful considering how often he runs them, but it’s far from a special “throw me the ball” level. His success rate on every other route is ghastly. His 42.3% success rate vs. man and 69.1% success rate vs. zone are both poor and only ahead of Quentin Johnston among the rookies. | Rookie Report | 4 |
| 1203 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | Oof | 24 | 0 | Troubling doesn't do it justice when looking at Cooper Kupp's in-season Reception Perception data. The 2021 Triple Crown winner is performing so far below his usual standard. His success rate vs. zone coverage of 77.3% is a more than 10% drop from his 2022 result. His 59.5% success rate vs. man coverage is also beyond troubling after kicking that part of his game into an excellent territory the previous two seasons. The Rams have cut the intermediate routes almost completely out of Kupp's game and are just using him on layup routes from the slot. Obviously he's dealt with a variety of injuries this season and those are clearly sapping his game right now. Hopefully he can get back to form soon otherwise, we're going to have a tough conversation. Puka Nacua is so far ahead as the No . 1 receiver on this offense. | 2022 Profile | Weeks 5 and 12 |
| 1205 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | Right On | 25 | 0 | Lockett has had some slower moments this season but so has the entire Seahawks offense. His 2023 RP results don't match some of his career-best marks of 2022 but I don't think we're seeing him approach the cliff as a player. His 70% success rate vs. man andf 80% success rate vs. press are still quite good and reflective of a valuable player. Even if he's a step slower going forward, he's still a great route runner and reliable presence. There's just a pretty big target squeeze in Seattle with DK Metcalf and now even JSN playing at a high level. | 2022 Profile | Week 13 |
| 1207 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | Good | 27 | 0 | If you've listened to any of my content this season, you know I am not a fan of how Washington's offense is structured and think most of Sam Howell's stats are empty calorie passing yards. In terms of Terry McLaurin in isolation, his RP results are slightly below some of his career-best numbers from 2020 and 2021. But his 73% success rate vs. man is right in line with what he produced in a Pro Bowl 2022 campaign. His press success rate of 74% is a good bit lower from some of his near elite finishes of the past, which may be a result of lingering turf toe effects. It's hard to say for sure but it's not enough of a drop to be alarmed. Overall, McLaurin is still playing great ball and is not close to Washington's biggsest issues on offense. I hope we can some day get him in a good ecosystem with a quality passing game because if you think the 2023 Commanders qualify as such, you're kidding yourself. | 2022 Profile | Weeks 7 and 13 |
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