We’re about to start getting into the Week 6 slate, which means the season is officially a quarter of the way over. This is the time where trends are becoming apparent and player outlooks are much clearer than they were in draft season. So your team may look a little different than you thought it would. That means it’s time to make some trades so let’s get into it.
Players to trade for:
Michael Pittman
This Colts team isn’t necessarily the prettiest to watch any given week but Michael Pittman has quietly had a big sophomore breakout so far this year. He is the clear-cut leader in the passing game, averaging 8.6 targets per game and a 25.3% target share. Sadly, all those targets have only accounted for one TD, but given the volume, expect positive touchdown regression. Opportunity alone would be enough to target Pittman but he has the talent to go along with it. His success rate vs. man coverage as a rookie put him in the 75th percentile in Reception Perception which puts him on a good track to have a 1,000-yard season at some point in his career, and that was with a season cut short by injury.
Pittman is a very safe WR2 with upside every week and if Carson Wentz continues to get more comfortable in this offense and the touchdowns catch up to the volume, Pittman could get close to a top-12 positional finish.
He still seems to be flying under the radar for a lot of managers so if you need a receiver I would trade away a lower level RB2 such as Damien Williams, Leonard Fournette, Mike Davis, or Damien Harris to acquire Pittman. You can also send a stud receiver to get Pittman and a solid RB2 if you need depth.
D’Andre Swift
D’Andre Swift is currently sitting at RB7 in half-PPR scoring right now so no part of me thinks you’ll be able to go get him for scraps. But if the Swift manager in your league isn’t valuing him as a true RB1 then you can probably get him at a discount.
Swift is a monster in the receiving game, receiving 18.7% of the Lions’ targets. For reference, the only two RBs with a higher target share are Alvin Kamara and dump-off king Najee Harris.
While the Lions definitely aren’t the worst 0-5 team in the NFL they will still be playing from behind a lot this season which bodes well for Swift’s receiving work to continue.
The thorn in Swift’s side is clearly Jamaal Williams who continues to see a hefty chunk of carries every week, but Williams hasn’t seen more than three targets since Week 1. I don’t expect Williams to just disappear this season but with Swift getting healthier and his snap percent rising, I expect the carries to be closer to a 65/35 split in Swift’s favor rather than the 50/50 split it is currently.
Packaging a solid RB2 like Chase Edmunds or Miles Sanders with another flex player to get Swift might be a savvy move to upgrade your RB spot. If we’re talking one-for-one I’d part with Antonio Gibson, James Robinson, CeeDee Lamb, or Chris Godwin straight up.
Javonte Williams
I’ve seen this story unfold time and time again, a talented young rookie stuck behind an aging veteran for the first half of the season that will turn around and win the league the second half of the year. I mean you had Jonathan Taylor last year, disappointing the first half and dominating the second. Miles Sanders in 2019 won people their leagues when he got the job.
Williams has looked electric on limited touches this season, literally carrying players at times while ripping off chunk plays. The Broncos traded up to draft him and have already made an effort to get him involved in both the run and pass game. One way or another Williams will be getting the lion’s share of the touches in this backfield by the end of this season and you’ll want him on your roster when he does.
It’s still a little early to look at playoff schedules but his Week 12-17 matchups right after the Broncos’ bye are juicy. They face LAC, KC, DET, CIN, LV, and LAC again who are all bottom half run defenses. He is one of those players you need to trade for before the breakout happens. Right now trading away a Brandin Cooks, Corey Davis, or Zack Moss could get it done.
Honorable Mentions:
Marquise Brown – These are not last year’s Ravens, Brown is easily a top-20, maybe top-15 WR this year.
Cordarrelle Patterson – Not a joke, it’s finally his year. He’s currently a top-6 RB and trading for him is even better if he has RB and WR eligibility in your league.
Players to trade away:
Keenan Allen
Look away, Matt Harmon, you’re not gonna like this one. Mike Williams has been an absolute monster this year, easily the best draft value of the season and I don’t think it’s a fluke.
In Justin Herbert’s rookie year he was absolutely locked in on Keenan Allen; just peppering him with targets. This year he’s a better quarterback and that means he’s spreading the ball around more. Allen’s best games last year came during the stretch of games Austin Ekeler missed. That’s no coincidence. While Allen can win anywhere on the field he is being targeted much closer to the LOS in Lombardi’s offense, limiting his weekly upside.
With Mike Williams having his long-awaited breakout and Ekeler carving out his usual share of targets, Allen is no longer a WR1 for me but a mid to high-end WR2. If you can sell him for WR1 value I would while you have the chance. If you need an RB Allen’s the perfect candidate to trade for D’Andre Swift or Darrell Henderson.
Tee Higgins
The off-season drama surrounding Jamar Chase’s “drop issues” had a lot of people debating who the number one would be this year on the Bengals. Well, it’s Chase and it looks like it’s going to be Chase for a long, long time.
Tee Higgins is still a very talented young WR but he just isn’t getting the opportunity to be anything more than a touchdown-dependent WR2. Higgins isn’t seeing the deep shots that he did last year as his yards per target and yards per catch have both dropped significantly this year.
He’ll still have plenty of games where you’ll be happy he was in your starting lineup but I don’t trust him as anything more than a bye-week fill-in or flex play. I would rather have Michael Pittman, Antonio Brown or maybe check in on the Michael Thomas manager.
Kareem Hunt
It’s hard to find RBs to trade away because it’s all so muddled after basically the top-14 but Kareem Hunt stands out.
It’s difficult to part with the kind of production Hunt is giving you at the RB position right now but so far we haven’t seen the volatility that we did last year with Hunt either. Once Nick Chubb came back from his injury last season Hunt scored less than ten points in five of the last eight games of the season. That volatility will return this year at some point, although Chubb is set to miss Week 6 against the Cardinals.
I also believe this Browns defense will get better throughout the season, along with their ability to control the clock and run the ball with Chubb all game. If you can get an underperforming WR1 like Stefon Diggs or Calvin Ridley for him now, you should.
Honorable mentions:
Miles Sanders – The Eagles play calling is just awful and they don’t seem to care if he gets involved or not.
DeAndre Hopkins – The same argument as Keenan Allen. Kyler Murray is spreading the ball around too much for Hopkins to have another top-5 season.
