We done made it. The fantasy playoffs are here meaning it’s about that time to shut down these sleeper columns for this season. I hope you guys will excuse me as I spend some much needed time with the fam during the holidays.
I know there’s about 17 of you that have been extremely loyal readers and to each and every one of you, I thank you. For any of you that have gotten any useful tidbits out of these weekly columns just know I absolutely appreciate you for taking the time to read whatever it is I’m putting down.
I’ll still be around online of course, I’ll have more streams on both YouTube and TikTok going over matchup data so feel free to hit me up on literally any social media platform you’re on and I do a pretty good job answering questions there.
Ok but on to the sleepers:
*All data from the last 8 weeks unless specified. Most matchup stats provided by our friends at Fantasy Points. Check out their data suite here.
QUARTERBACKS
Jordan Love vs TB: I know he massively underperformed last week but it’s one of the best matchups on the board having given up the 5th most fantasy points per game (fppg). Not only do the Bucs give up passing yards (3rd most) they also give up big plays. The 8.33 yards/att allowed is 4th worst. It’s so bad even Desmond Ridder dropped a hammer on them to the tune of 347 yards and 2 total touchdowns.
DEEP SLEEPER Nick Mullens vs CIN: the Bengals give up the 6th most fppg to QB and are dead last in both pass yards/game and yards/att allowed to QB. The 68.7% comp rate allowed ranks as 2nd worst. No one is going to tell you Mullens is dynamic but his collection of pass catchers in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockensen is electric when healthy. Let’s hope Jettas is just that.
Sam Howell vs LAR: Howell is a top 10 fantasy QB on the season so this is probably cheating by saying he’s a sleeper but certainly he is far from a sure-fire starter. It’s a good matchup as the Rams are bottom 10 in passing yards and fantasy points allowed to QB with 3 straight QB’s scoring 2+ touchdowns. I say play him with confidence.
RUNNING BACKS
Najee Harris vs IND: 4 straight running backs have posted 100+ scrimmage yards against the Colts. Going back even further, 8 straight starting backs have scored 10+ ppr points against this rush defense (9 total RB’s!). We love Jaylen Warren here but I think both backs will get there’s this week.
Ezekiel Elliott vs KC: the Chiefs have given up the 7th most fppg to RB and Zeke got a heavy workload since Rhamondre went down with injury, especially out of the backfield as a pass catcher. He’s seen 5 and 8 targets in back-to-back weeks.
D’Onta Foreman vs CLE: the 4.57 ypc allowed by the Browns to opposing backs ranks as the 5th worst. Foreman missed time with an ankle but last week came back and dominated touches. Foreman played 56% of the snaps, Roschon Johnson 27%, Khalil Herbert 17%. Foreman had 11 carries, Herbert 3, Roschon 1. The most encouraging part? Foreman ran 16 routes with 3 targets (2 rec, 22 yards). Herbert and Johnson ran 7 and 6 respectively but neither saw a target. All signs point to Foreman being the guy even though the Bears did run three backs out there.
Ty Chandler vs CIN: Mattison is out and the Bengals a slightly below average run defense. Chandler ran a 4.38 40 running in an outside zone run scheme. If given 15-18 opportunities Chandler could easily hit a home run. He’s an easy flex/RB2 play.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs PHI: the Eagles have allowed the most fppg to WR’s in the slot including the most receptions, yards and touchdowns allowed per game. JSN after averaging 3.3 receptions and 29.9 yards per game over his first 7 games is now averaging 4.3 receptions and 47.3 yards over his last 6 games. I really like his TD upside this week.
DEEP SLEEPER JuJu Smith-Schuster vs KC: obviously health is key here but if JuJu (ankle) is good to go, he’s got a fantastic matchup. The Chiefs have given up the 2nd most fppg to the slot. They are bottom 7 in receptions, yards, completion% and yards/att allowed to inside receivers. JuJu looked like NE’s most reliable target last week, a 6/4/90 effort.
Jayden Reed vs TB: sleeper or smash spot? Either way it’s a beautiful matchup as the Bucs are bottom 4 in receptions and yards per game allowed to the slot while the 73.1% comp rate allowed inside ranks as 2nd worst. Reed has scored 15+ ppr points in 4 of his last 5 games.
DEEP SLEEPER Wan’Dale Robinson vs NO: the Saints have been a slot funnel all year long as they are significantly tougher and more dangerous at their outside corner spots. Let’s see if Wan’Dale and Tommy DeVito can build on last week’s effort (7 tar, 6 rec, 79 rec yards, 115 total).
DEEEEEEEEEP SLEEPER Xavier Hutchinson vs TEN: Nico Collins is out and the rookie from Iowa State may be asked to fill the outside X role. Hutch is 6-2, 205 pounds and while he is also not an ideal X (as noted by Matt Harmon), I believe he still profiles better there than Noah Brown who, if we’re being real, is a no-go as an X. Brown lined up outside 80% last week and caught 0 passes. Why does this matter you ask? Because TEN has allowed at least one outside receiver to score double-digit ppr points in literally EVERY GAME THIS YEAR. They’ve been so bad outside that Jonathan Mingo scored double-digit ppr points. They’ve been so bad, Alec Pierce scored his only touchdown and had his only 100 yard game against them. They’ve been so bad Diontae Johnson scored his first TD since the Reagan Administration. Hutch was tied for the team lead in snaps played among WR’s and essentially ran the same amount of routes as Bobby Trees and the aforementioned Brown.
Romeo Doubs vs TB: we love Jayden Reed but don’t forget about Doubs. He’s a trusted target for Jordan Love and the Bucs allow the 6th most yards per game and the 6th highest yards/tar to outside receivers.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs JAX: a lot of the back-end numbers are all wrong. He plays sparingly, just 52% of the snaps last week and he was 4th on the team in routes run, trailing even Nelson Agholor. But for all the fancy numbers your favorite fantasy analyst throws out there, BY FAR the strongest indication of fantasy points remains targets. Since WK7 Odell is tied for the team lead in targets, leads the team in both air yards and receiving yards and his 3 receiving touchdowns is tied with Mark Andrews for the most on the team. When he’s out there Lamar LOVES throwing to him. The matchup is strong; the Jags are bottom 7 in comp% and yards/tar allowed to the outside. They’ve allowed the 11th most yards and fantasy points to outside WR’s.
TIGHT ENDS
DEEP SLEEPER Logan Thomas vs LAR: the Rams have allowed the 9th most fppg to TE including the 10th most yards and the 4th most touchdowns per game.
DEEP SLEEPER Daniel Bellinger vs NO: LOL I guess I’m just going to keep writing about the Belly of the Beast until he hits. No but seriously, it’s a great matchup! The Saints have given up the 2nd most fppg to TE including the 4th most yards and the 2nd most touchdowns.
James Koh is the co-owner of Reception Perception, a fantasy football analyst and an award-winning journalist. He’s probably wrong, but you never know. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram or TikTok @JamesDKoh.
